TITLE:
Potential Range Expansion of the Invasive Red Shiner, Cyprinella lutrensis (Teleostei: Cyprinidae), under Future Climatic Change
AUTHORS:
Helen M. Poulos, Barry Chernoff
KEYWORDS:
Invasive Fishes, Maxent, Climate Envelope Model, Climate Change, Biological Invasions, Cyprinella Lutrensis
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Ecology,
Vol.4 No.9,
June
25,
2014
ABSTRACT:
We built climate envelope models under contemporary and future climates
to explore potential range shifts of the invasive Red Shiner-Cyprinella lutrensis. Our objective was
to estimate aquatic habitat vulnerability to Red Shiner invasion in North
America under future climatic change. We used presence records from within the
species’ native and invaded distributions, a suite of bioclimatic predictor
variables from three climate models (CCCma, CSIRO, and HadCM3), and maximum
entropy modeling to generate potential distribution maps for the year 2080. Our
model predicted major range expansion by Red Shiner under both low and high
carbon emissions scenarios. The models exceeded average area under the receiver
operator characteristic curve values of 0.92, indicating good overall model
performance. The model predictions fell largely outside of areas of climatic
extrapolation (i.e. regions predicted
into environments different from training the region) indicating good model
performance. The results from this study highlight the large potential range
expansion across North America of Red Shiner under future warmer climates.