TITLE:
Economic Valuation of Sea Level Rise Impacts on Agricultural Sector: Damietta Governorate, Egypt
AUTHORS:
M. A. Abdrabo, M. A. Hassaan
KEYWORDS:
Sea Level Rise; Nile Delta; Economic Valuation; Agriculture; Groundwater Table Level
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Environmental Protection,
Vol.5 No.2,
February
26,
2014
ABSTRACT:
The Nile
Delta is considered to be one of the most vulnerable river deltas to Sea Level
Rise (SLR) in the world. SLR is expected to affect large agricultural areas of
the Nile Delta, either through inundation or higher levels and salinity of
groundwater. It could be argued that such impacts
would augment the problems experienced already in the area in terms of high
groundwater table and salinity levels. In order to guide policy and decision
making, especially in terms of assessing the economics of various adaptation
options, there is a need to provide estimates of potential economic damage that
could result from such changes. The paper in
hand aims to estimate the economic value of potential primary impacts of higher
levels of groundwater table due to expected SLR on agriculture productivity in
Damietta Governorate as one of the Nile Delta coastal governorates. To conduct
such an assessment, relationship between
groundwater table level and
agricultural productivity was first investigated
in relevant literature. This was
followed by reviewing prevailing conditions in the agricultural sector in the
study area. Thereafter, a regression analysis for the main crops in the study
area, between crop yield and groundwater table levels, was conducted. Based on
the developed regression, a GIS (Geographic Information System)-based
hydrological model, and a production economic model, were employed to assess
economic value of higher levels of groundwater table impacts on agriculture
productivity. It was found that
future accumulative crop yield loss was estimated, using segmented linear
regression, up to the year 2100 to be as much as L.E. 6.43 billion. It is worth
mentioning that these estimates do not include indirect impacts of higher levels of groundwater table,
which may include loss of jobs and/or earnings, impacts on food supply and food
security in the area. A potential adaptation
option, namely redesigning and upgrading existing drainage infrastructure, was
found to cost a total of L.E. 190.8 million, representing about 4.5% of the estimated
accumulative potential damage to agricultural productivity up to the year 2100.