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International Symposium on Engineering Management (ISEM 2009 PAPERBACK)

Beijing,China,12.12-12.13,2009

ISBN: 978-1-935068-07-5 Scientific Research Publishing, USA

Paperback 794pp Pub. Date: December 2009

Category: Engineering

Price: $120

Title: Study of Emergency Decision Criterion of Scenarios Analysis Method in Unconventional Emergency Management
Source: International Symposium on Engineering Management (ISEM 2009 PAPERBACK) (pp 421-424)
Author(s): Wenguo Yang, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Yifeng Jia, China Institute of Industrial Relations, Base Department, Beijing, China
Jun Huang, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Abstract: Lack of useful information and its uncertainty nature is one of feathers of unconventional emergency management. It is difficult to make decision for decision maker when deal with unconventional emergencies. The conventional decision methodology which based on experience doesn’t work well due to the low frequency of unconventional emergencies. So scenarios analysis method (SAM) is proposed in this paper. The definition of scenarios in the unconventional emergencies is described and the elements of the scenarios are given when analyzing the scenarios of unconventional emergencies. The multi-scenarios methodology for unconventional emergencies handling make it difficult for decision maker to choose right candidate plan. The appropriate decision criterion is of prime importance. Three decision criteria, i.e. min-max criterion, min-max regret criterion and relative min-max regret criterion are formulated respectively and the relevance of these criteria is point out correspondingly.
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