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Author(s): |
Lu FENG, Xi’an University of architecture and technology, school of management, Xi’an, China
Pei ZHANG, School of Economics and Management, Northwest university, NWU, Xi’an, China |
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Abstract: |
Abstract: As the scale of Xi’an real estate market enlarges year by year, developing quality gradually exalts, and the consume idea becomes mature, with the deep development of real estate market and canonical run of policy, Xi’an real estate industry strides forward from low-level model to the way which makes for consumption, sustaining development and the regional real estate market appear “the heat” phenomenon. As west “bridgehead”, there are hot signs of the market movement in Xi’an real estate market. System dynamic is used in this thesis to do research on the house real estate market. Firstly, by analyzing the inner structure and external influence factors of the market, the article establishes an emulation forecast model with System Dynamics Theory, confirming the initial value of variable and parameter according to the data of Xi’an from 2002 such as GDP, population, ground supply, ground price and house market. Then, as an example, simulate the developing condition of Xi’an commercial tenement market from 2002 to 2015 with vensim, analyze the trend of Xi’an real estate market by analyzing the result of predict, and adjust factors of model in order to confirm the effect. Last, conclude the developing status of Xi’an real estate market through analyzing the main export index, and expound corresponding policy advice by policy simulation experiment.
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