|
Author(s): |
Shiqiang Zhang, Dept. of mathematics, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
Salan Zhang, Ping An Asset Management Co. Ltd, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd, Shanghai, China
Zheng Jiang, Dept. of mathematics, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
Chunli Wang, Dept. of mathematics, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
Ting Wang, Dept. of mathematics, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China |
|
Abstract: |
Measles is an acute respiratory infection and is the most common acute respiratory infectious disease, which is seriously harmful to the child's health. It is also highly infectious and can be very popular in densely populated areas without a general vaccination of the pandemic. Therefore, the establishment of early warning mechanism of measles, measles trend forecasting, prevention and control of measles in the relevant departments to provide a scientific basis for decision making, is an important public health work. Based on the information excavation and the grey system theory, this essay has given a forecast method of measles trend. According to this method and our country's actual situation, we have established a grey system GM(1,1) model of measles trend. This model forecasts the trend of our country’s measles dis- ease incidence rate very well.
|