On Return Periodof the Largest Historical Flood

Witold G. Strupczewski, Krzysztof Kochanek, Ewa Bogdanowicz

Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Ksi?cia Janusza, Warsaw, Poland.
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Podle?na, Warsaw, Poland.

DOI: 10.4236/gep.2014.23019                

Abstract

The use of nonsystematic flood data for statistical purposes depends on reliability of assessment both flood magnitudes and their return period. The earliest known extreme flood year is usually the beginning of the historical record. Even though the magnitudes of historic floods are properly assessed, a problem of their retun periods remains unsolved. Only largest flood (XM) is known during whole historical period and its occurrence carves the mark of the beginning of the historical period and defines its length (L). So, it is a common practice of using the earliest known flood year as the beginning of the record. It means that the L value selected is an empirical estimate of the lower bound on the effective historical length M. The estimation of the return period of XM based on its occurrence, i.e. , gives the severe upward bias. Problem is to estimate the time period (M) representative of the largest observed flood XM. From the discrete uniform distribution with support of the probability of the L position of XM one gets  which has been taken as the return period of XM and as the effective historical record length. The efficiency of using the largest historical flood (XM) for large quantile estimation (i.e. one with return period T = 100 years) has been assessed using maximum likelihood (ML) method with various length of systematic record (N) and various estimates of historical period length  com- paring accuracy with the case when only systematic records alone (N) are used. The i-th simula- tion procedure incorporates systematic record and one largest historic flood (XMi) in the period M which appeared in the Li year backward from the end of historical period. The simulation result for selected distributions, values of their parameters, different N and M values are presented in terms of bias (B) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the quantile of interest and widely discussed.

Keywords

Flood Frequency Analysis, Historical Information, Error Analysis, Maximum Likelihood, Monte Carlo Simulations

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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