Bayesian Estimation of Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Models

Asma Graja Elabed, Afif Masmoudi

Sfax University, Sfax, Tunisia.

DOI: 10.4236/jmf.2014.42009                

Abstract

In this paper, a general Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility model is proposed instead of the usual Gaussian model largely studied. We consider a new specification of SV model where the innovations of the return process have centered non-Gaussian error distribution rather than the standard Gaussian distribution usually employed. The model describes the behaviour of random time fluctuations in stock prices observed in the financial markets. It offers a response to better model the heavy tails and the abrupt changes observed in financial time series. We consider the Laplace density as a special case of non-Gaussian SV models to be applied to our data base. Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, based on the bayesian analysis, has been employed to estimate the model’s parameters.

Keywords

on-Gaussian Distribution; Stochastic Volatility; Laplace Density; Fat Tails; Kullback Leiber Divengence; Bayesian Analysis; MCMC Algorithm

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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