Impact of climate change on agriculture during winter season over Pakistan

Khalid M. Malik, Arif Mahmood, Dildar Hussain Kazmi, Jan Muhammad Khan

Director General, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Director, National Agromet Center, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Director, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Meteorologist, National Agromet Center, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan.

DOI: 10.4236/as.2012.38122                

Abstract

This study has been carried out to investigate the impact of climate change over Pakistan and its surrounding areas (60° - 80°E and 20°- 40° N) during winter seasons (December-February). Variability in three meteorological parameters such as: rainfall; air temperature; and moisture transport, has been investigated. Global Pre- cipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) data for precipitation and National Centre for Environ- mental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data for computation of Moisture Flux Convergence (MFC) and temperature have been used for the period of 49 years (1961 to 2009). The study period has been divided into three phases on basis of pre- cipitation anomaly i.e., before climate change scenario (1961-1985), transition period (1986- 1999) and after climate change scenario (2000- 2009).Variability in precipitation has been ob- served in three different ways such as, slightly increase in magnitudes, decrease in rainy days and shifting of precipitation pattern towards south of the country. Moisture transport from the surrounding has decreased with increase in precipitation which is indirectly associated with decreases in mass deposit on the glaciers. In- crease in temperature is more prominent over upper and lower part as compared to the central parts of the country. Uncertainty in precipitation has also been observed. Shift of precipitation over southern parts showed positive impact over agriculture sector. As a result, Rabi crop yield has increased during last decade over southern parts of the country.

Keywords

Cloud Burst; Seasonal Temperature; Moisture Transport; Shift in Precipitation

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	Chaudhry, Q.Z. and Rasul, G. (2004) Agroclimatic classification of Pakistan. Science Vision, 9, 59.
[2]	Dowswell, C. (1989) Wheat research and development in Pakistan. Pakistan Agriculture Research Council, Collaboration Program.
[3]	Go, P., (2008) Economic survey of Pakistan (2007-08). Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan, Pakistan.
[4]	Harry, M.K. and Thomas E.D., (1993) Agricultural dimensions of global climate change. St. Lucie Press, Delary Beach.
[5]	Rasul, G., Dahe, Q. and Chaudhry, Q.Z. (2008) Global warming and melting glaciers along southern slopes of HKH ranges. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, 5, 14 p.
[6]	Kazmi, D.H. and Rasul, G. (2009) Early yield assessment of wheat on meteorological basis for Potohar region, Pakistan. Journal of Meteorology, 6, 73.
[7]	Pratley, J. (2003) Principles of field crop production. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
[8]	Hussain, S.S. and Mudasser, M. (2004) Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan—An econometric analysis. Econpapers, 94, 494-501.
[9]	Elshamy, M.E., Wheater, H.S., Gedney, N. and Huntingford, C. (2006) Evaluation of the rainfall component of a weather generator for climate impact studies. Journal of Hydrology, 326, 1-24. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.09.017
[10]	Hennessy, K.J., Gregory, J.M. and Mitchell, J.F.B. (1997) Changes in daily precipitation under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Climate Dynamics, 13, 667-680. doi:10.1007/s003820050189
[11]	Fowler, A.M. and Hennessy, K.J. (1995) Potential impacts of global warming on the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation. Natural Hazards, 11, 283-303. doi:10.1007/BF00613411
[12]	Chaudhry, Q.Z., Sheikh, M.M., Bari, A. and Hayat, A. (2001) History’s worst drought conditions prevailed over Pakistan. http://www.pakmet.com.pk/journal/historyworstdrought2001report.htm