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Dynamic Two-phase Truncated Rayleigh Model for Release Date Prediction of Software

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DOI: 10.4236/jsea.2010.36070    4,254 Downloads   7,811 Views   Citations


Software reliability modeling and prediction are important issues during software development, especially when one has to reach a desired reliability prior to software release. Various techniques, both static and dynamic, are used for reliability modeling and prediction in the context of software risk management. The single-phase Rayleigh model is a dynamic reliability model; however, it is not suitable for software release date prediction. We propose a new multi-phase truncated Rayleigh model and obtain parameter estimation using the nonlinear least squares method. The proposed model has been successfully tested in a large software company for several software projects. It is shown that the two-phase truncated Rayleigh model outperforms the traditional single-phase Rayleigh model in modeling weekly software defect arrival data. The model is useful for project management in planning release times and defect management.

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The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Cite this paper

L. Qian, Q. Yao and T. Khoshgoftaar, "Dynamic Two-phase Truncated Rayleigh Model for Release Date Prediction of Software," Journal of Software Engineering and Applications, Vol. 3 No. 6, 2010, pp. 603-609. doi: 10.4236/jsea.2010.36070.


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