Why There Will Be No Peak Coal in the Foreseeable Future

Thomas Thielemann, Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer

Coal Mining, RWE Power AG, Essen/Cologne, Germany.
General Economic Policy/Science, RWE AG, Essen, Germany.

DOI: 10.4236/ojg.2012.22006                

Abstract

Hard coal and lignite—also referred to here jointly as coal—play a central role in the worldwide supply of humanity with primary energy. As a fossil energy carrier, coal is one of the finite natural resources. The reach of the world’s coal reserves is significant, and coal has the potential to cover some of the global energy and raw-material needs at least into the 22^nd century. Precondition for this is a sustainable energy policy, i.e. an equal-ranking view of the goals of environmental and climate compatibility (sustainability), security of supply and competitiveness (affordability). The focus of developments is on resource efficiency and energy savings to obtain more modern and more efficient coal-based power plants. Greater use of coal translates into higher CO₂ emissions. So if we are to achieve the climate-protection goals of limiting the rise in temperatures and reducing the CO₂ content in the Earth’s atmosphere, the launch of CCS technology is recommended. Within the scope of the climate-protection debate, a discussion is also underway about an alleged drying up of coal availability in the short term (under the heading of “peak coal”). This discussion is an example of how, from the limited perspective of particular interests, a swathe of facts can be ignored. Hence, this article sets out to take a fact-based, sober look at the subject of the “reach of global coal reserves”. How much coal do we really have? And to what extent will coal be available tomorrow to guarantee secure and affordable energy supplies in the future as well? These issues will be investigated here.

Keywords

Coal; Hard Coal; Lignite; Reserves; Resources; Mining; Exploration; Trade; CCS

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	S. Schmidt, S. Rehder and B. Cramer; “Quo Vadis Kohle?”Commodity Top News of the BGR, Hannover, Vol. 32, 2009, p. 10.
[2]	BP, “BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011,” London, 2011, p. 45. http://www.bp.com/assets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2011.pdf
[3]	IEA, “Electricity Information,” International Energy Agency, Paris, 2011, p. 878. http://www.iea.org/w/bookshop/b.aspx?Subject=Electricity, ISBN 978-92-64-101913
[4]	IEA, “Coal Information 2011,” International Energy Agency, Paris, 2011, p. 542. http://www.iea.org/w/bookshop/add.aspx?id=579
[5]	K. Van de Loo and K. Gutberlet, “Steinkohle. Trends auf den Internationalen Steinkohlemarkten,” BWK, das EnergieFachmagazin, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp. 68-75.
[6]	EU, “Sustainable Development in the European Union,” Eurostat Report, Brussels, 2009, p. 311. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/product_details/publication?p_product_code=KS-78-09-865
[7]	G. Agricola, “De re Metallica,” VDI-Verlag, Wiesbaden, Reprint of the Edition First Published in 1556, 2006, p. 564.
[8]	G. B. L. Fettweis, D. Kelter and R. Nostaller, “Zur Beurteilung und Klassifizierung von Lagerstattenvorraten— die neue UN-Klassifikation,” Bergund Hüttenm?nnische Monatshefte, Vol. 144, No. 2, 1999, pp. 43-51.
[9]	M. Ersoy, “Worldwide Implementation of United Nations Framework Classification on Coal Deposits,” Regional Seminar on UNFC—Application to Energy and Mineral Resources, Moscow, 24-25 April 2003. http://www.unece.org/energy/se/pdfs/MoscowApr03/ersoy.pdf.
[10]	H. Akin, “Zur Akzeptanz der Geostatistik als Grundlage der Vorratsklassifikation,” In: GDMB, Ed., Klassifikation von Lagerstattenvorraten—Stand der internationalen Bemühungen 1997, Clausthal-Zellerfeld, Vol. 79, 1997, pp. 9-20.
[11]	JORC, “Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves (The JORC Code),” 2004 Edition, 2004, p. 20. http://www.jorc.org/pdf/jorc2004print_v2.pdf. JORC = Joint Ore Reserve Committee
[12]	IEA, “World Energy Outlook 2010,” International Energy Agency, Paris, 2010, p. 590. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org
[13]	WEC, “Survey of Energy Resources 2010,” A Report of the World Energy Council (WEC), London, 2010, p. 618. http://www.worldenergy.org/publications/3040.asp
[14]	BGR, “Reserven, Ressourcen und Verfügbarkeit von Energierohstoffen 2010,” Brief Study, Hannover, 2010, p. 85. http://www.bgr.bund.de
[15]	J. P. Gerling and F.-W. Wellmer, “Raw Material Availability—With a Focus on Fossil Energy Resources,” World of Mining—Surface & Underground, Vol. 56, No. 4, 2004, pp. 254-262.
[16]	T. Thielemann, S. Schmidt and J. P. Gerling, “Lignite and Hard Coal: Energy Suppliers for World Needs until the Year 2100—An Outlook,” International Journal of Coal Geology, Vol. 72, No. 1, 2007, pp. 1-14. doi:10.1016/j.coal.2007.04.003
[17]	S. Schmidt, “Harmonisierung der Reservenund Ressourcen-Einsch?tzungen von Hartkohlen in Europa und Russland,” Ph.D. Thesis, University of Aachen, Aachen, 2007, p. 441.
[18]	H.-W. Schiffer, “Vorratssituation der fossilen Energietrager,” Bergbau, Vol. 9, 2009, pp. 389-393.
[19]	C. Kopal, “Angebot und Nachfrage am Steinkohlenweltmarkt,” Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft (ZfE), Vol. 30, No. 1, 2006, pp. 67-82.
[20]	M. Hook, W. Zittel, J. Schindler and K. Aleklett, “Global Coal Production Outlooks Based on a Logistic Model,” Fuel, Vol. 89, No. 11, 2010, pp. 3546-3558. doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2010.06.013
[21]	ABARE, “Australian Mineral Statistics,” Historical Data, 2009. http://www.abareconomics.com/publications_html/data/data/data.html http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/10ams_mar/excel/ams_tables.xls
[22]	M. Hook and K. Aleklett, “Historical Trends in American Coal Production and a Possible Future Outlook,” International Journal of Coal Geology, Vol. 78, No. 3, 2009, pp. 201-216. doi:10.1016/j.coal.2009.03.002
[23]	EWG, “Coal: Resources and Future Production,” Report of the Energy Watch Group (EWG), EWG-Series No. 1, Ottobrunn, 2007, p. 47.
[24]	B. Q. Lin and J. H. Liu, “Estimating Coal Production Peak and Trends of Coal Imports in China,” Energy Policy, Vol. 38, No. 1, 2010, pp. 512-519. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.042
[25]	BGR, “Energierohstoffe 2009,” Reserven, Ressourcen, Verfügbarkeit, Hannover, 2009, p. 286. http://www.bgr.bund.de
[26]	VDKi, “Annual Report 2011,” Verein der Kohlenimporteure, Hamburg, 2011, p. 130. http://www.verein-kohlenimporteure.de/wDeutsch/jahresbericht/index.php?navid=19
[27]	H.-W. Schiffer and C. Kopal, “Beitrag des SteinkohlenWelthandels zur Sicherung der Energieversorgung,” Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft, Vol. 29, No. 3, 2005, pp. 171-180.
[28]	T. Thielemann, J. P. Gerling, H. Rempel and B. Stribrny, “Entwicklung und Perspektiven des Weltsteinkohlemarktes,” Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, Vol. 56, No. 1, 2006, pp. S15-S20.
[29]	BZ, “Südafrika wird Asiens Kohlegrube,” Report in the German Newspaper B?rsen-Zeitung, 29 March 2011, p. 12.
[30]	VDI, “Durchbruch am neuen Panamakanal,” Report in the German newspaper VDI-Nachrichten, No. 17, 29 April 2011.
[31]	B. Ricketts, “Towards 2050: Coal in a Changing World,” VDKi, Hamburg, 14 January 2011. http://www.verein-kohlenimporteure.de/wDeutsch/aktuelles/meldungen/2011_01_27_72361729_meldung.php?navtext=Aktuelles