Site Specific Uncertainty in Regional Haze RuleHaze Indexes

Patrick A. Ryan

.

DOI: 10.4236/acs.2012.21001                

Abstract

In 1999, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published the regional haze rule (RHR). The RHR default implementation plan calls for each class I area 20% worst baseline (2000-2004) visibility to improve linearly in time to natural conditions in 2064 and in calendar year 2018, each class I area 20% worst visibility is to comply with the 2018 visibility that falls on the linear improvement glide path from baseline (2000-2004) to natural (2064) conditions. This study shows that accurately assessing compliance depends on assessing the uncertainty in baseline, natural and 2018 visibility estimates. This study identifies ±3 dV and ±4 dV of uncertainty in 20% worst natural and baseline visibility estimates. The percent uncertainty in calculated 2018 glide path visibility values ranges from 10% - 45%.

Keywords

Haze

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	US Environmental Protection Agency, “Regional Haze Rule, 40 CFR Part 51, Regional Haze Regulations,” Final Rule, 1 July 1999.
[2]	US Environmental Protection Agency, “Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions under the Regional Haze Program,” EPA-444/B-03-005, September 2003.
[3]	US Environmental Protection Agency, “Draft Guidance for Tracking Progress under the Regional Haze Rule,” EPA-444/B-03-004, September 2003.
[4]	M. Pitchford, W. Malm, B. Schichtel, N. Kumar, D. Lowenthal and J. Hand, “Revised Algorithm for Estimating Light Extinction from IMPROVE Particle Speciation Data,” Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, Vol. 57, 2007, pp. 1326-1336. doi:10.3155/1047-3289.57.11.1326
[5]	National Institute of Science and Technology, “e-Handbook of Statistical Methods,” 5 July 2010. http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/
[6]	IMPROVE (2005). “IMPROVE Data,” 2 July 2010. ftp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/Public/AirQuality/Data/Aerosol/IMPROVE/EntireDataset/
[7]	P. A. Ryan, D. Lowenthal and N. Kumar, “Improved Light Extinction Reconstruction in Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments,” Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, Vol. 55, 2005, pp. 1751-1759.
[8]	J. Rokjin, D. Jacoba, N. Kumar and R. Yantoscaa, “Regional Visibility Statistics in the United States: Natural and Transboundary Pollution Influences, and Implications for the Regional Haze Rule,” Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 40, No. 28, 2006, pp. 5405-5423. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.04.059
[9]	C. Heald, D. Jacob, R. Park, B. Alexander, T. Fairlie, R. Yantosca and D. Chu, “Transpacific Transport of Asian Anthropogenic Aerosols and Its Impact on Surface Air Quality in the United States,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, 2007, Article ID: D14310.