A Multivariate Poisson Model of Consumer Choice in a Multi-Airport Region

Andrew J. BUCK, Erwin A. BLACKSTONE, Simon HAKIM

.

DOI: 10.4236/ib.2009.12012                

Abstract

Using the results of a unique telephone survey the frequency of consumer flights from airports in a multi-airport region are modeled using a multivariate Poisson framework, the parameters of which were estimated using a latent variable application of the expectation maximization algorithm. This offers a different perspective since other work on airport choice uses the results of airport intercept surveys that capture only a single choice per respondent, whereas the data from the phone survey is count data for the airports in the study. An airport’s own-distance had the expected negative impact on mean usage of the airport, although the cross effects were somewhat mixed. Ticket price differences between airports were not always statistically significant. Mean usage was found to be increasing in income for PHL, but was decreasing for the other airports, reflecting the increasing value of respondents’ time as their income rises. If the destination of flights is domestic (international) then the result is to increase usage of PHL, BWI and EWR (JFK). Except for JFK, if the purpose of travel is mostly pleasure then it results in more travel from JFK and less from the other three airports. The availability of a low cost carrier would result in more frequent travel.

Keywords

Airport Choice, Poisson Regression, Expectation Maximization

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	Hess, Stephane, and Polak, J., “Mixed logit modeling of airport choice in multi-airport regions,” Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 59–68, 2005.
[2]	Hess, Stephane, and Polak, J., “Airport, airline and access-mode choice in the san francisco bay area airports,” Papers in Regional Science, Forthcoming, 2006.
[3]	Blackstone, E., Buck, A. J., and Hakim, S., “Determinants of airport choice in a multi-airport region,” Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 3–326, September 2006.
[4]	Karlis, D., and Meligkotsidou, L., “Multivariate poisson regression with covariance structure,” Statistics and Computing, Vol. 15, pp. 255–265, 2005.
[5]	Ashford, N. and Benchemam, M., “Passengers’ choice of airport: An application of the multinomial logit model,” Transportation Research Record 1147, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1987.
[6]	Caves, R. E., Ndoh, N. N., and Pitfield, D. E., “Route choice modeling applied to the choice between mature airports and emergent airports in their shadow,” Paper presented at the 31st RSA European Congress, Lisbon, Portugal, August 27–30, 1991.
[7]	Thompson, A. and Caves, R. E., “The projected market share for a new small airport in the North of England,” Regional Studies, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 137–147, 1993.
[8]	Harvey, G., “Airport choice in a multiple airport region,” Transportation Research, Vol. 21A, No. 6, pp. 439–449, 1987.
[9]	Basar, G. and Bhat, C., “A parameterized consideration set model for airport choice: An application to the san francisco bay area,” Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Vol. 38, No. 10, pp. 9–904, December 2004.
[10]	Hess, S., “An analysis of airport-choice behavior using the mixed multinomial logit model,” Center for Transport Studies, Imperial College, London, 2004, http://www.ersa.org/ersaconfs/ersa04/PDF/61.pdf.
[11]	Ishii, J., Jun, S., and VanDender, K., “Air travel choices in multi-airport markets,” 2005.
[12]	Pels, E., Nijkamp, P., and Rietveld, P., “Access to and competition between airports: A case study for the san francisco bay area,” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 37, No. 1, pp. 71–83, January 2003.
[13]	Windle, R. and Dresner, M., “Airport choice in a multi-airport region,” Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 121, No. 4, pp. 332–338, July–August, 1995.
[14]	Gardiner, J., Humphreys, I., and Ison, S., “Freighter operators’ choice of airport: A three-stage process,” Transport Reviews, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 85–102, January 2005.
[15]	Gosling, G. D., “Southern California association of governments regional airport demand model: Literature review,” Project #5437, June 2003.
[16]	Belden, T. and Ginsberg, T., “A sign of US Airways’ health,” Philadelphia Inquirer, pp. A1 and A4, November 16, 2006.
[17]	Morrison, S. A., “Airline service,” in L. L. Deutsch, Industry Studies, 3rd Edition, M. E. Sharpe, Armonk, NY, pp. 151–152, 2002.
[18]	McFadden, D., “Econometric analysis of qualitative response models,” In Z. Griliches and M. Intriligator, eds., Handbook of Econometrics, North Holland, Amsterdam, Vol. 2, 1984.
[19]	Maddala, G. and Flores-Lagunes, A., “Qualitative response models,” in B. Baltagi, ed., A Companion to Theoretical Econometrics, Blackwell, Oxford, 2001.
[20]	Ross, S. M., “Introduction to probability models,” Academic Press, New York, pp. 174–175, 1980.
[21]	Aitchison, J. and Ho, C. H., “The multivariate poisson- log normal distribution,” Biometrika, Vol. 76, No. 4, pp. 643–653, 1989.
[22]	Terza, J. V. and Wilson, P. W., “Analyzing frequencies of several types of events: A mixed multinomial poisson approach,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 72, No. 1, 108–115, 1990.
[23]	Shonkwiler, J. S. and Englin, J., “Welfare losses due to livestock grazing on public lands: A count data systemwide treatment,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 87, No. 2, pp. 302–313, 2005.
[24]	Ben-Akiva, M. and Lerman, S. R., Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, pp. 235–239, the MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1985.
[25]	Greene, W., Econometric Analysis, 5th Edition, Prentice Hall, New York, pp. 743–744, 2003.
[26]	Blumberg, S. J., Luke, J. V., and Cynamon, M. L., “Telephone coverage and health survey estimates: evaluating the need for concern about wireless substitution,” American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 96, No. 5, pp. 926–931, May 2006.
[27]	Jay Computer Services, 9594 208th Street West, Lakeville, MN 55044, http://nt.jcsm.com or whttp://www.jcsm.com, last accessed on 11/09/2006.
[28]	Shapiro, H., “The frugal flier: Getting the best buy on an airline ticket means considering much more than the fare,” Philadelphia Inquirer, pp. N06, March 28, 2004.
[29]	deLeeuw, E. and Hox, J. J., “I am not selling anything: 29 experiments in telephone introductions,” International Journal of Public Opinion Research, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 464–473, 2004.
[30]	PHL (Philadelphia International Airport), “2005 numbers show Philadelphia international airport is now the 9th busiest airport for aircraft operations,” 2006, http://www.phl.org/news060228.html