Inflation Forecasting: Rewarding Luck Rather Than Skill? - Open Access Library Journal

OALibJ > Vol.6 No.10, October 2019

Inflation Forecasting: Rewarding Luck Rather Than Skill? ()

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DOI: 10.4236/oalib.1105801 238 Downloads 879 Views Citations

Author(s)

Sergio Da Silva^1*, Raul Matsushita², Geziel Fernández²

Affiliation(s)

¹Department of Economics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, SC, Brazil.
²Department of Statistics, University of Brasilia, Brasilia, DF, Brazil.

ABSTRACT

The Central Bank of Brazil annually rewards the top 5 private forecasters of the long run price index “aiming at improving their predictive ability.” We review the The Central Bank of Brazil annually rewards the top 5 private forecasters of the long run price index “aiming at improving their predictive ability.” We review the evidence of their performance and cannot reject the hypothesis that the forecasters enter the top 5 list randomly.evidence of their performance and cannot reject the hypothesis that the forecasters enter the top 5 list randomly.

KEYWORDS

Inflation Forecasting, Professional Forecasters, Central Banks, Luck

Share and Cite:

Silva, S. , Matsushita, R. and Fernández, G. (2019) Inflation Forecasting: Rewarding Luck Rather Than Skill?. Open Access Library Journal, 6, 1-6. doi: 10.4236/oalib.1105801.

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