Opinion Polls and Statistics Conflict—Time for a Change?

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DOI: 10.4236/ojps.2019.94040    681 Downloads   1,856 Views  
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ABSTRACT

Generally, in the 2016 United States Presidential Election, Mr. Trump was underestimated by 6.9% and greater than the margin of error. Against this background, the paper discusses the shortcomings of the existing methods and supports the view that a new polling method is needed when related to “opinions”. Graphs show that the maximum error did not occur at the expected value, nor did the data align with a normal statistical bell-shaped distribution. Vulnerabilities exist with combining fact-based statistical analysis with feeling-based opinions. Basic statistics equations do not cover feeling- based factors, i.e. biases, truthfulness, competency, nonresponse rates, etc. A comprehensive pollster accuracy study showed that the most widely used pollsters had significant biases favoring Democrats over Republicans. The 2016 polling failures illustrate deficiencies in the existing approach supporting the view that a new methodology is needed such as Statistical Error Analysis, On-Line Methodology, and others.

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Nelson, M. (2019) Opinion Polls and Statistics Conflict—Time for a Change?. Open Journal of Political Science, 9, 652-668. doi: 10.4236/ojps.2019.94040.
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