Author(s)

Hai-Yan Xu¹, Xiuju Fu¹, Chin Leong Lim², Stefan Ma³, Tian Kuay Lim⁴, Paul Anantharajah Tambyah⁵, Mohd Salahuddin Habibullah¹, Gary Kee Khoon Lee⁶, Lee Ching Ng⁷, Kee Tai Goh⁸, Rick Siow Mong Goh¹, Lionel Kim Hock Lee²

¹Institute of High Performance Computing, Singapore.
²Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
³Ministry of Health, Singapore.
⁴Urban Redevelopment Authority, Singapore.
⁵National University of Hospital, Singapore.
⁶Rolls-Royce Singapore Pte Ltd., Singapore.
⁷National Environment Agency, Singapore.
⁸Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

In this article we propose a novel hurdle negative binomial (HNB) regression combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to model weather factors’ impact on heat related illness (HRI) in Singapore. AIC criterion is adopted to help select proper combination of weather variables and check their lagged effect as well as nonlinear effect. The process of model selection and validation is demonstrated. It is observed that the predicted occurrence rate is close to the observed one. The proposed combined model can be used to predict HRI cases for mitigating HRI occurrences and provide inputs for related public health policy considering climate change impact.

Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model, Heat-Related Illness, Hurdle Model, Negative Binomial distribution, Weather Factors

Xu, H. , Fu, X. , Lim, C. , Ma, S. , Lim, T. , Tambyah, P. , Habibullah, M. , Lee, G. , Ng, L. , Goh, K. , Goh, R. and Lee, L. (2018) Weather Impact on Heat-Related Illness in a Tropical City State, Singapore. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 8, 97-110. doi: 10.4236/acs.2018.81007.