Author(s)

Hugo Abi Karam^1*, Julio Cesar Barreto da Silva², Augusto José Pereira Filho³, José Luis Flores Rojas³

¹Instituto de Geociências, IGEO-CCMN-UFRJ, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
²Departmento de Estatística, CCET-UFRN, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brasil.
³Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, IAG-USP, Universidade de Sao Paulo, SP, Brasil.

In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.

Modelling Dengue Epidemics, Environmental Enthalpy, Environmental Precursors of Dengue Epidemics

Karam, H. , Silva, J. , Filho, A. and Rojas, J. (2016) Dynamic Modelling of Dengue Epidemics in Function of Available Enthalpy and Rainfall. Open Journal of Epidemiology, 6, 50-79. doi: 10.4236/ojepi.2016.61007.