Author(s)

Maria do Rosário Oliveira Martins, Inês Campos Rodrigues, Teresa Ferreira Rodrigues

CEPESE—Centro de Estudos da População, Economia e Sociedade, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal.
Unidade de Saúde Pública Internacional e Bioestatística, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.

Objectives: To project health outcomes for the period 2011-2031, in the Portuguese population aged 65 years and over, considering the expected changes in its demographic and educational structure. Methods: Demographic projections were produced using the multistate cohort component method. Logistic regression models were fitted to estimate current differences in health outcomes, using data from the Portuguese Health Survey. Such differences were applied to the projection results, in order to project the prevalence of “poor” self-reported health status, functional limitations and disability. Results: Our results point to a future improvement in the considered health outcomes. The prevalence of “poor” self-reported health status, functional limitations and disability will decrease in both genders, but will continue to be higher among women than men. Discussion: Beyond age and gender, other determinants of health, like education, should be considered when studying the possible evolution of health outcomes in an ageing population.

Projections, Aging, Educational Level, Self-Reported Health Status, Functional Limitations and Disability

do Rosário Oliveira Martins, M. , Rodrigues, I. and Rodrigues, T. (2014) Projecting Health Outcomes for Portuguese Ageing Population: Challenges and Opportunities. Health, 6, 1874-1882. doi: 10.4236/health.2014.614220.