Applying Downscaled Global Climate Model Data to a Hydrodynamic Surface-Water and Groundwater Model - American Journal of Climate Change

AJCC > Vol.3 No.1, March 2014

Applying Downscaled Global Climate Model Data to a Hydrodynamic Surface-Water and Groundwater Model ()

HTML

Download as PDF (Size: 4149KB) PP. 33-49

DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.31004 5,241 Downloads 8,665 Views Citations

Author(s)

Eric Swain, Lydia Stefanova, Thomas Smith

Affiliation(s)

Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, USA.
US Geological Survey, Florida Water Science Center, Davie, USA.
US Geological Survey, Southeast Ecological Science Center, St. Petersburg, USA.

ABSTRACT

Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

KEYWORDS

Hydrologic Models; Climate Change; Rainfall; Hydrodynamics; Salinity

Share and Cite:

Swain, E. , Stefanova, L. and Smith, T. (2014) Applying Downscaled Global Climate Model Data to a Hydrodynamic Surface-Water and Groundwater Model. American Journal of Climate Change, 3, 33-49. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.31004.

Journals Menu

Follow SCIRP

	+1 323-425-8868
	customer@scirp.org
	+86 18163351462(WhatsApp)
	1655362766

	Paper Publishing WeChat

Journals Menu

Home

About SCIRP

Service

Policies