Author(s)

Douglas Crawford-Brown, Mark Syddall, Dabo Guan, Jim Hall, Jun Li, Katie Jenkins, Rachel Beaven

Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UK.
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.

A variant of the Adaptive Regional Input-Output model (ARIO) has been developed to explore the sensitivity of the London economy to loss of production capacity in sectors affected by climate change related damage. The model is designed for linking to an Event Accounting Matrix (EAM) produced by climate and engineering teams, and then follow this damage through direct and indirect losses in the economy during a recovery process that is either demand-led (in which recovery of production capacity takes place only as demand recovers) or investment-led (where recovery of production capacity can precede demand). Outputs from the model are used to assess the relative vulnerability of London’s economy to production capacity (Capital stock) loss in each of the 42 economic sectors, for purposes of identifying where to most effectively allocate resources to climate change adaptation strategies or to recovery operations when used in conjunction with an EAM. Measures of impact related to GDP loss, recovery time and the ratio of indirect to direct losses are developed for these scenarios. Results show that indirect losses are a significant component of total losses, with a multiplier of between 1.3 and 2 depending on the scale of initial damage.

Climate Change; Vulnerability; Resilience; Indirect Losses; Economic Recovery

D. Crawford-Brown, M. Syddall, D. Guan, J. Hall, J. Li, K. Jenkins and R. Beaven, "Vulnerability of London’s Economy to Climate Change: Sensitivity to Production Loss," Journal of Environmental Protection, Vol. 4 No. 6, 2013, pp. 548-563. doi: 10.4236/jep.2013.46064.